The project titled "Spatial Modeling of Forest Fire Risk and Climate Projections with Hybrid Machine Learning," led by Faculty Member Fatih Sivrikaya from the Department of Forestry Engineering at Kastamonu University, has been granted support under the TÜBİTAK 1002 – Rapid Support Program.

In the project, the researchers include Prof. Dr. Gonca Ece Özcan, Prof. Dr. Korhan Enez, and Research Assistant Döndü Bulur from the Department of Forestry Engineering, as well as M. Burçin Irmak, the Deputy Director of the Kastamonu Forest Regional Directorate. 

Within the scope of the project, which will last 12 months and has a budget of 150,000 TL, fire risk maps will be created using hybrid machine learning methods; the performances of different models will be compared to determine the model with the highest accuracy. Additionally, fire risk projections for the years 2030, 2050, and 2070 will be prepared in accordance with the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios. 

The studies will be carried out in collaboration with the Kastamonu Forest Regional Directorate. In this context, the forest fires that occurred over the last 10 years (2016–2025) and the environmental parameters affecting them will be analyzed in detail. In the project, algorithms such as Random Forest, XGBoost, Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Logistic Regression, Decision Trees, AdaBoost, and Naive Bayes, along with their hybrid approaches, will be used.

With the developed modeling framework, it is aimed to predict forest fire risk under both current and future climate conditions with high accuracy. In this way, it is aimed to plan preventive measures against fires more effectively.

Our Rector, Prof.Dr. Ahmet Hamdi Topal, in his evaluation of the project, stated, "Forest fires are emerging as an increasing risk on a global scale. It is of great importance to predict these risks in advance through scientific studies and to take the necessary precautions. This project, developed by our academics, will benefit our province, region, and country. We will continue to support research focused on contributing to society and increasing scientific production.”  

Our rector congratulated the academics who contributed to the project and wished them success. He also thanked the President of YÖK, Prof. Dr. Erol Özvar, and YÖK members for their support for research activities in higher education, and the TÜBİTAK President, Prof. Dr. Orhan Aydın, for his contributions to university projects.